Canadian banks will show a 6% year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter overall operating profit, according to a Desjardins Securities forecast released today.

The drop is due to the asset-backed commercial paper and mortgage market writedowns already announced by such banks as National Bank of Canada, CIBC and Bank of Montreal.

The report was written by Desjardins analyst Michael Goldberg.

Goldberg expects Bank of Nova Scotia to produce the only dividend increase this quarter, with Goldberg forecting an increase to 47¢ per share from 45¢.

The other big Canadian banks, except National, raised their dividends last quarter.

Bank earnings season begins next week.