Despite the fact that financial markets reacted calmly to this week’s announcement by the U.S. central bank that it will start to reduce bond buying next month, there could still be volatility ahead, cautions Fitch Ratings.
In a new report, the rating agency notes that the calm reaction to news of the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board suggests that central banks around the world may be able to exit their stimulus programs fairly smoothly. However, it cautions that the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England “all continue to pump money into their economies and there are likely to be bouts of volatility as and when that stimulus is slowly removed.”
Fitch also notes that the expansion of the central banks’ balance sheets will continue for the foreseeable future, with neither the ECB nor the BOJ likely to consider less policy accommodation in the short term. In fact, it suggests that they may be more likely to move in the opposite direction. “It is a policy priority in Japan to exit deflation and it may become an increasingly important priority in the eurozone to avoid it,” it says.
Additionally, Fitch notes that the Fed cushioned the news of the planned reduction in its asset buying program with guidance that has been widely interpreted as a pledge to keep interest rates low too. It also notes that the risks associated with this sort of tapering have abated since mid-2013 when markets were roiled by the suggestion that the Fed could begin scaling down its bond purchases; as some of the required adjustment took place at that time.
Nevertheless, Fitch suggests that emerging markets that rely on sizeable portfolio flows “are likely to experience further disruptive episodes with possible increases in equity, bond market and currency volatility”. And, to the extent that U.S. long-term interest rates rise, rates in developed markets may be affected, too, it adds.
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