More people will be collecting public pensions, and they’ll be collecting them over a longer period, Jean-Claude Ménard, Chief Actuary for the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, told the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Economics Association on May 31.

“Future mortality improvements are expected to come more slowly and at older ages, as mortality rates at younger ages are already very low,” he said. “In the context of the Canada Pension Plan, more and more contributors are expected to reach the normal retirement age of 65 and receive a pension. Retirement beneficiaries are also expected to receive their benefit for a longer period.”

It says that life expectancy at birth for Canada is expected to increase from 76.2 years in 2000 to 82 in 2075 for males and from 81.6 years to 85.8 years for females. The gap between males and females would narrow from the current 5.4 years to only 3.8 years by 2075.

The probability of a newborn reaching age 18, the starting age for the CPP, is already high and future improvements will only slightly increase that probability, it says. The probability of a male age 18 reaching age 65 is expected to increase from 84.1% in 2000 to 90.8% by 2075; the corresponding figures for a female are 90.4% and 93.8%, respectively.

CPP beneficiaries are also expected to live longer. Life expectancy at age 65 for males is projected to increase from the current 16.7 years to 20.4 years by 2075 and from 20.2 years to 23.2 years for females.

OSFI doesn’t expect huge increases in life expectancy. “A life expectancy at birth of 100 years is practically impossible in the next half century unless there are dramatic medical and scientific breakthroughs. It would require sustained mortality improvements at a level about three times what has been observed over the last 10 years. Alternatively, assuming a maximum human life span of about 145 years could result in a life expectancy at birth of 100 years,” said Ménard.

Ménard noted taht major medical advances and improvements in the quality and standard of living in the 20th century increased our life expectancy at birth by almost 30 years. “However, a great deal of medical research is still required to increase life expectancy even further. One proof is that mortality improvements have recently shown signs of slowing down. The greater slowdown in mortality improvements for females in recent years has narrowed the gender gap in mortality.”