The prospect of increasing political populism accounts for three of the five biggest risks facing the global economy and the credit outlook, suggests Fitch Ratings in a new report.

The rating agency’s latest “risk radar” report features several potential political risks, with political disruption in the Eurozone identified as the most urgent risk to Fitch’s global credit rating portfolio. The prospect of a protectionist rejection of NAFTA by the new U.S. administration, and a renewed push for Scottish independence after Brexit, are the other two populist-driven scenarios it is considering.

For the Eurozone, Fitch sees a possible risk to Eurozone cohesion developing, “most likely as a result of a political shock from national elections in 2017, resulting in broad financial disruption similar to the 2012 Eurozone crisis,” it says. “This scenario includes a substantial increase in lending rates and bond spreads for the periphery and a decline in equity markets, negatively impacting GDP growth and increasing concerns regarding bank profitability and capitalisation.”

Another new risk consideration focuses on the possibility of the U.S. administration rejecting NAFTA, leading to tariffs on Mexican imports, and triggering retaliatory trade actions. “This, combined with immigration restrictions, would result in inflationary pressures, increasing interest rates and global economic uncertainty,” Fitch says.

The other downside scenario involves failed Brexit negotiations and Scottish independence from the U.K. “In this scenario, the effects of an unfavourable Brexit outcome are further compounded by those of Scottish independence, with a negative impact on UK GDP growth and public finances,” Fitch says.

The two non-political scenarios involve the impact of global reflation, and the risk of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.