The default rate for global speculative-grade securities ticked up in October and is expected to head higher in the months ahead, according to Moody’s Investors Service Inc.

The New York-based credit-rating agency reports that the trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate finished at 2.7% in October, up from 2.6% in September. In the U.S., the speculative-grade default rate rose to 2.8% in October from 2.7% and in Europe the rate increased to 2.4% from 2.1%.

“The energy sector remains the most troubled, accounting for almost a quarter of the 79 defaults so far this year,” said Sharon Ou, vice president and senior credit officer with Moody’s Credit Policy Research, in a statement.

Moody’s forecasting model now predicts that the global default rate will end the year at 3% and that it will continue rising gradually to 3.4% by October 2016. It says that default rates will be highest in the mining sector in the U.S., followed by energy companies.

Even if the rate rises as expected, Moody’s says it will still remain below the historical average of 4.2% given the general stable credit trends and moderate refinancing risk.

“The credit market has seen some volatility recently, reflecting investors’ concerns about the impact of a potential Fed interest rate hike on the global economy in addition to ongoing commodity price deflation,” noted Ou in the statement.